• Phillies on the road: Run margin +0.025 away from home• Braves at home: Win 63.75% of home games• Win 63.75% of home games: But by +0.875 runs on average• 1.80 needs 55.6%. The market's fair price is 55.4% across 13 books, and our quote sits 5.6% above the median (1.70).Main risk: A Braves blowout: they go over 8.5 runs in 47.5% of home games, and a big inning turns a close game into a rout.